First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 23

Etar Veliko Tarnovo–Lokomotiv Sofia

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 March 2024 at 10:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Ivailo, Veliko Târnovo

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

54'Lokomotiv SofiaGorka Larrucea (own goal)
81'Etar Veliko TarnovoI. Vasilev
89'Lokomotiv SofiaI. Naydenov

Match statistics

Match statistics
Etar Veliko Tarnovo		Lokomotiv Sofia
13	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	3
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
66%	Possession	34%
549	Passes	253
473	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1.16 · Lokomotiv Sofia 1.03. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Etar Veliko Tarnovo 13 · Lokomotiv Sofia 9; on target 5 and 6.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

G. Ivanov→

3.40

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.7%: “Etar Veliko Tarnovo to win”. Second comes “Lokomotiv Sofia to win” at 31.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.16 for Etar Veliko Tarnovo, 1.03 for Lokomotiv Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 68.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 431 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Etar Veliko Tarnovo to win37.7%

Draw31.1%

Lokomotiv Sofia to win31.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	20

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Etar Veliko Tarnovo lead at half-time28.1%

Level at half-time47.5%

Lokomotiv Sofia lead at half-time24.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Etar Veliko Tarnovo ahead or level75.5%

12 — not level at half-time52.5%

X2 — level or Lokomotiv Sofia ahead71.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 431 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Etar Veliko Tarnovo: at least 12Actual: 15
Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 10Actual: 20

Corners

Etar Veliko Tarnovo: at least 5Actual: 4
Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Etar Veliko Tarnovo score1.16

Attack: Etar Veliko Tarnovo score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Sofia concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lokomotiv Sofia score1.03

Attack: Lokomotiv Sofia score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Etar Veliko Tarnovo concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%1–012.1%0–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.