First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 19

Levski Krumovgrad–Beroe

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 December 2023 at 15:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex, Plovdiv

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'Levski KrumovgradRenan Areias

Match statistics

Match statistics
Levski Krumovgrad		Beroe
11	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	4
2	Offsides	2
53%	Possession	47%
410	Passes	391
324	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Levski Krumovgrad 1.26 · Beroe 0.90. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Levski Krumovgrad 11 · Beroe 13; on target 3 and 4.

Referee

P. Kuzev→

4.00

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.0%: “Levski Krumovgrad to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Levski Krumovgrad, 0.90 for Beroe.
The highest double chance value is 74.7% (1X — Levski Krumovgrad win or draw).
These values were computed from 404 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Levski Krumovgrad to win44.0%

Draw30.7%

Beroe to win25.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Levski Krumovgrad lead at half-time18.8%

Level at half-time43.1%

Beroe lead at half-time38.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Levski Krumovgrad ahead or level61.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Beroe ahead81.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 404 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Levski Krumovgrad: at least 13Actual: 15
Beroe: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Levski Krumovgrad: at least 4Actual: 5
Beroe: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Levski Krumovgrad score1.26

Attack: Levski Krumovgrad score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Beroe's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beroe score0.90

Attack: Beroe score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Levski Krumovgrad's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–013.8%0–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.