First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 19

Etar Veliko Tarnovo–Cherno More Varna

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 December 2023 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Ivailo, Veliko Târnovo

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

59'Cherno More VarnaV. Drobarov
87'Cherno More VarnaM. Soula · red card
90+5'Etar Veliko TarnovoM. Toshev (penalty)
90+8'Cherno More VarnaV. Panayotov

Match statistics

Match statistics
Etar Veliko Tarnovo		Cherno More Varna
6	Shots	22
4	Shots on target	7
4	Shots inside the box	14
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	6
0	Offsides	2
39%	Possession	61%
301	Passes	522
228	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Etar Veliko Tarnovo 0.69 · Cherno More Varna 1.66. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Etar Veliko Tarnovo 6 · Cherno More Varna 22; on target 4 and 7.
Cherno More Varna kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

I. Stoyanov→

5.62

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.9%: “Cherno More Varna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.69 for Etar Veliko Tarnovo, 1.66 for Cherno More Varna.
The highest double chance value is 86.1% (X2 — draw or Cherno More Varna win).
These values were computed from 400 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Etar Veliko Tarnovo to win13.9%

Draw25.2%

Cherno More Varna to win60.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,247 of 1,995 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	18

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Etar Veliko Tarnovo lead at half-time11.0%

Level at half-time42.4%

Cherno More Varna lead at half-time46.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Etar Veliko Tarnovo ahead or level53.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Cherno More Varna ahead89.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 400 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Etar Veliko Tarnovo: at least 11Actual: 12
Cherno More Varna: at least 11Actual: 18

Corners

Etar Veliko Tarnovo: at least 4Actual: 5
Cherno More Varna: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Etar Veliko Tarnovo score0.69

Attack: Etar Veliko Tarnovo score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cherno More Varna concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.69 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cherno More Varna score1.66

Attack: Cherno More Varna score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Etar Veliko Tarnovo concede 31% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–115.3%0–213.6%1–112.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.