First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 3

Etar Veliko Tarnovo–CSKA Sofia

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 1 November 2023 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Ivailo, Veliko Târnovo

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

49'CSKA SofiaMarcelino Carreazo
60'CSKA SofiaA. Youga · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Etar Veliko Tarnovo		CSKA Sofia
13	Shots	10
7	Shots on target	3
0	Shots inside the box	0
6	Goalkeeper saves	9
7	Corners	6
5	Offsides	2
53%	Possession	47%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Etar Veliko Tarnovo 0.47 · CSKA Sofia 2.05. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Etar Veliko Tarnovo 13 · CSKA Sofia 10; on target 7 and 3.

Referee

I. Zanev→

5.45

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 75.7%: “CSKA Sofia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.47 for Etar Veliko Tarnovo, 2.05 for CSKA Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 93.8% (X2 — draw or CSKA Sofia win).
These values were computed from 370 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Etar Veliko Tarnovo to win6.2%

Draw18.1%

CSKA Sofia to win75.7%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	15

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Etar Veliko Tarnovo lead at half-time8.1%

Level at half-time38.8%

CSKA Sofia lead at half-time53.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Etar Veliko Tarnovo ahead or level46.9%

12 — not level at half-time61.2%

X2 — level or CSKA Sofia ahead91.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 370 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Etar Veliko Tarnovo: at least 11Actual: 10
CSKA Sofia: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Etar Veliko Tarnovo: at least 3Actual: 7
CSKA Sofia: at least 5Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Etar Veliko Tarnovo score0.47

Attack: Etar Veliko Tarnovo score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: CSKA Sofia concede 52% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals CSKA Sofia score2.05

Attack: CSKA Sofia score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: Etar Veliko Tarnovo concede 38% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.05 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–217.8%0–116.2%0–311.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.