First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 15

Cherno More Varna–Pirin Blagoevgrad

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 26 October 2023 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Ticha, Varna

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'Pirin BlagoevgradH. Komano
17'Cherno More VarnaPablo Álvarez
83'Cherno More VarnaD. Dimov

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cherno More Varna		Pirin Blagoevgrad
25	Shots	13
7	Shots on target	3
0	Shots inside the box	0
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
59%	Possession	41%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cherno More Varna 2.00 · Pirin Blagoevgrad 0.41. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Cherno More Varna 25 · Pirin Blagoevgrad 13; on target 7 and 3.
Cherno More Varna kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

P. Kuzev→

4.00

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 76.4%: “Cherno More Varna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.00 for Cherno More Varna, 0.41 for Pirin Blagoevgrad.
The highest double chance value is 94.5% (1X — Cherno More Varna win or draw).
These values were computed from 364 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cherno More Varna to win76.4%

Draw18.1%

Pirin Blagoevgrad to win5.5%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Cherno More Varna lead at half-time42.0%

Level at half-time45.0%

Pirin Blagoevgrad lead at half-time13.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Cherno More Varna ahead or level87.0%

12 — not level at half-time55.0%

X2 — level or Pirin Blagoevgrad ahead58.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 364 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cherno More Varna: at least 13Actual: 14
Pirin Blagoevgrad: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Cherno More Varna: at least 6Actual: 8
Pirin Blagoevgrad: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cherno More Varna score2.00

Attack: Cherno More Varna score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Pirin Blagoevgrad concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.00 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pirin Blagoevgrad score0.41

Attack: Pirin Blagoevgrad score below the league average (46% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cherno More Varna concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.41 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–018.9%1–017.8%3–012.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.