Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Relegation Round - 5

Bohemians 1905–Pardubice

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 May 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Ďolíček, Praha

Goals and red cards

64'PardubiceK. Daněk
77'Bohemians 1905David Puškáč · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bohemians 1905		Pardubice
10	Shots	12
1	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
48%	Possession	52%
383	Passes	427
288	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bohemians 1905 1.84 · Pardubice 1.04. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Bohemians 1905 10 · Pardubice 12; on target 1 and 4.

Referee

V. Opočenský→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.1%: “Bohemians 1905 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for Bohemians 1905, 1.04 for Pardubice.
The highest double chance value is 80.4% (1X — Bohemians 1905 win or draw).
These values were computed from 507 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bohemians 1905 to win56.1%

Draw24.3%

Pardubice to win19.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,655 of 2,780 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Bohemians 1905 win or draw80.4%

12 — any result other than a draw75.7%

X2 — draw or Pardubice win43.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Bohemians 1905 lead at half-time34.7%

Level at half-time44.4%

Pardubice lead at half-time20.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Bohemians 1905 ahead or level79.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or Pardubice ahead65.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 507 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bohemians 1905: at least 11Actual: 18
Pardubice: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Bohemians 1905: at least 6Actual: 6
Pardubice: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bohemians 1905 score1.84

Attack: Bohemians 1905 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pardubice concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pardubice score1.04

Attack: Pardubice score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bohemians 1905's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%2–110.9%2–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.