Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 34

Vitesse–Ajax

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 May 2024 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: GelreDome, Arnhem

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'VitesseA. Boutrah (assist: G. de Regt)
42'AjaxJ. Sutalo (assist: A. Gaaei)
78'VitesseK. Kozłowski (assist: T. Buitink)
90+3'AjaxS. Berghuis

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vitesse		Ajax
15	Shots	25
6	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	19
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	11
2	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
361	Passes	479
297	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vitesse 1.28 · Ajax 2.07. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Vitesse 15 · Ajax 25; on target 6 and 5.
Ajax kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

E. Blank→

3.41

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.6%: “Ajax to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Vitesse, 2.35 for Ajax.
The highest double chance value is 79.3% (X2 — draw or Ajax win).
These values were computed from 603 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vitesse to win20.7%

Draw20.7%

Ajax to win58.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Vitesse lead at half-time13.1%

Level at half-time35.2%

Ajax lead at half-time51.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Vitesse ahead or level48.3%

12 — not level at half-time64.8%

X2 — level or Ajax ahead86.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 603 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vitesse: at least 10Actual: 10
Ajax: at least 8Actual: 6

Corners

Vitesse: at least 4Actual: 5
Ajax: at least 4Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vitesse score1.28

Attack: Vitesse score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ajax's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ajax score2.07

Attack: Ajax score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Vitesse's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.0%1–18.5%1–37.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.