Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 33

Heerenveen–Vitesse

1–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 May 2024 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 19%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'HeerenveenA. Tahiri (penalty)
23'VitesseM. van Ginkel
58'VitesseM. van Ginkel (penalty)
90+2'VitesseT. Buitink (assist: Mica Pinto)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Heerenveen		Vitesse
22	Shots	16
5	Shots on target	7
14	Shots inside the box	14
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	2
3	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
426	Passes	393
347	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Heerenveen 1.94 · Vitesse 1.17. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Heerenveen 22 · Vitesse 16; on target 5 and 7.

Referee

R. Martens→

2.64

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.1%: “Heerenveen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.24 for Heerenveen, 1.24 for Vitesse.
The highest double chance value is 81.2% (1X — Heerenveen win or draw).
These values were computed from 594 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Heerenveen to win60.1%

Draw21.1%

Vitesse to win18.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	16

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Heerenveen lead at half-time50.8%

Level at half-time35.9%

Vitesse lead at half-time13.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Heerenveen ahead or level86.7%

12 — not level at half-time64.1%

X2 — level or Vitesse ahead49.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 594 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Heerenveen: at least 9Actual: 10
Vitesse: at least 10Actual: 16

Corners

Heerenveen: at least 5Actual: 7
Vitesse: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Heerenveen score1.94

Attack: Heerenveen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vitesse's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vitesse score1.17

Attack: Vitesse score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Heerenveen's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.6%1–19.5%3–17.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.