Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 32

Utrecht–Vitesse

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 May 2024 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

48'UtrechtV. Jensen (assist: J. Toornstra)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Utrecht		Vitesse
15	Shots	20
6	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	13
5	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	7
3	Offsides	0
38%	Possession	62%
297	Passes	499
234	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Utrecht 2.05 · Vitesse 0.97. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Utrecht 15 · Vitesse 20; on target 6 and 5.
Vitesse kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

R. Dieperink→

3.14

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 76.4%: “Utrecht to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.63 for Utrecht, 0.84 for Vitesse.
The highest double chance value is 91.7% (1X — Utrecht win or draw).
These values were computed from 589 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Utrecht to win76.4%

Draw15.3%

Vitesse to win8.3%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Utrecht win or draw91.7%

12 — any result other than a draw84.7%

X2 — draw or Vitesse win23.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (15.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Utrecht lead at half-time48.6%

Level at half-time38.4%

Vitesse lead at half-time13.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Utrecht ahead or level87.0%

12 — not level at half-time61.6%

X2 — level or Vitesse ahead51.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 589 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Utrecht: at least 9Actual: 15
Vitesse: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Utrecht: at least 5Actual: 4
Vitesse: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals68.7%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 61.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Utrecht score2.05

Attack: Utrecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vitesse concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vitesse score0.97

Attack: Vitesse score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Utrecht's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.0%2–19.9%3–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 589 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 65 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.