Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 31

Vitesse–Fortuna Sittard

3–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 April 2024 at 14:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: GelreDome, Arnhem

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'VitesseP. Aaronson (assist: T. Buitink)
44'Fortuna SittardIñigo Córdoba
50'Fortuna SittardJ. Lonwijk (penalty)
68'VitesseM. van Ginkel (assist: A. Boutrah)
76'VitesseP. Aaronson (assist: K. Kozłowski)
81'VitesseG. van Zwam

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vitesse		Fortuna Sittard
10	Shots	20
6	Shots on target	10
6	Shots inside the box	12
8	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	6
1	Offsides	0
50%	Possession	50%
370	Passes	370
281	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vitesse 1.41 · Fortuna Sittard 1.41. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Vitesse 10 · Fortuna Sittard 20; on target 6 and 10.

Referee

R. Hensgens→

3.55

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.4%: “Fortuna Sittard to win”. Second comes “Vitesse to win” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Vitesse, 1.56 for Fortuna Sittard.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 584 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vitesse to win29.8%

Draw26.8%

Fortuna Sittard to win43.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	8

4	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Vitesse lead at half-time23.5%

Level at half-time43.8%

Fortuna Sittard lead at half-time32.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Vitesse ahead or level67.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Fortuna Sittard ahead76.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 584 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vitesse: at least 9Actual: 20
Fortuna Sittard: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Vitesse: at least 5Actual: 3
Fortuna Sittard: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vitesse score1.41

Attack: Vitesse score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Sittard's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fortuna Sittard score1.41

Attack: Fortuna Sittard score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Vitesse's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–210.0%0–18.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.