Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 30

PSV Eindhoven–Vitesse

6–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 April 2024 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Philips Stadion, Eindhoven

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'PSV EindhovenL. de Jong (assist: G. Til)
30'PSV EindhovenMalik Tillman
37'PSV EindhovenAndré Ramalho (assist: J. Veerman)
53'PSV EindhovenJ. Bakayoko (assist: L. de Jong)
67'PSV EindhovenL. de Jong (assist: J. Teze)
90+2'PSV EindhovenH. Lozano

Match statistics

Match statistics
PSV Eindhoven		Vitesse
29	Shots	9
12	Shots on target	0
19	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	4
3	Offsides	0
68%	Possession	32%
639	Passes	287
572	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PSV Eindhoven 3.37 · Vitesse 0.37. On the pitch: 6-0.
Shots PSV Eindhoven 29 · Vitesse 9; on target 12 and 0.
PSV Eindhoven kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

J. Manschot→

3.51

yellows per match

0.05

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 91.3%: “PSV Eindhoven to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 6.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.77 for PSV Eindhoven, 0.68 for Vitesse.
The highest double chance value is 97.7% (1X — PSV Eindhoven win or draw).
These values were computed from 568 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PSV Eindhoven to win91.3%

Draw6.3%

Vitesse to win2.3%

When the model has said 90–95% in the past, 46 of 48 predictions were correct (95.8%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

PSV Eindhoven lead at half-time74.8%

Level at half-time24.3%

Vitesse lead at half-time0.9%

First-half double chance

1X — PSV Eindhoven ahead or level99.1%

12 — not level at half-time75.7%

X2 — level or Vitesse ahead25.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 568 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

PSV Eindhoven: at least 8Actual: 6
Vitesse: at least 9Actual: 13

Corners

PSV Eindhoven: at least 7Actual: 5
Vitesse: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PSV Eindhoven score3.37

Attack: PSV Eindhoven score 79% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Vitesse's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 3.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vitesse score0.37

Attack: Vitesse score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: PSV Eindhoven concede 42% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–010.8%4–010.3%2–08.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.