Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 28

Vitesse–Sparta Rotterdam

1–4

HT 1–3

Kick-off: Tuesday, 2 April 2024 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: GelreDome, Arnhem

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Sparta RotterdamS. Mito
19'Sparta RotterdamP. Clement (assist: K. Saito)
43'Sparta RotterdamK. Saito (assist: Djevencio van der Kust)
45+1'VitesseK. Kozłowski (assist: A. Hadj-Moussa)
58'Sparta RotterdamM. Eerdhuijzen (assist: P. Clement)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vitesse		Sparta Rotterdam
21	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	7
15	Shots inside the box	12
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
64%	Possession	36%
538	Passes	304
450	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vitesse 1.33 · Sparta Rotterdam 1.54. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Vitesse 21 · Sparta Rotterdam 12; on target 6 and 7.
Vitesse kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

E. van de Graaf→

3.07

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.7%: “Sparta Rotterdam to win”. Second comes “Vitesse to win” at 32.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Vitesse, 1.50 for Sparta Rotterdam.
The highest double chance value is 72.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 549 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vitesse to win32.2%

Draw27.1%

Sparta Rotterdam to win40.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–3

Vitesse lead at half-time22.3%

Level at half-time43.5%

Sparta Rotterdam lead at half-time34.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Vitesse ahead or level65.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Sparta Rotterdam ahead77.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 549 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vitesse: at least 10Actual: 7
Sparta Rotterdam: at least 8Actual: 6

Corners

Vitesse: at least 5Actual: 8
Sparta Rotterdam: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vitesse score1.33

Attack: Vitesse score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sparta Rotterdam's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sparta Rotterdam score1.54

Attack: Sparta Rotterdam score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vitesse's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–29.7%2–18.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.