Super League 1 · Greece · Championship Round - 5

AEK Athens FC–Aris Thessalonikis

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 April 2024 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Piraeus

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'AEK Athens FCE. Ponce (assist: E. Hajisafi)
14'AEK Athens FCE. Ponce (assist: N. Eliasson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AEK Athens FC		Aris Thessalonikis
15	Shots	5
7	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
69%	Possession	31%
616	Passes	277
529	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEK Athens FC 2.18 · Aris Thessalonikis 0.73. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots AEK Athens FC 15 · Aris Thessalonikis 5; on target 7 and 2.
AEK Athens FC kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

E. Manouchos→

4.44

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.3%: “AEK Athens FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.18 for AEK Athens FC, 0.73 for Aris Thessalonikis.
The highest double chance value is 90.2% (1X — AEK Athens FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 407 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEK Athens FC to win71.3%

Draw18.9%

Aris Thessalonikis to win9.8%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,222 predictions were correct (74.6%). Accuracy record →

21	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

AEK Athens FC lead at half-time41.2%

Level at half-time41.2%

Aris Thessalonikis lead at half-time17.6%

First-half double chance

1X — AEK Athens FC ahead or level82.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or Aris Thessalonikis ahead58.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 406 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AEK Athens FC: at least 15Actual: 21
Aris Thessalonikis: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

AEK Athens FC: at least 5Actual: 4
Aris Thessalonikis: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEK Athens FC score2.18

Attack: AEK Athens FC score 68% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Aris Thessalonikis concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.18 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aris Thessalonikis score0.73

Attack: Aris Thessalonikis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AEK Athens FC concede 45% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.73 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.3%1–011.1%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.