Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 26

Kifisia–Panetolikos

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 March 2024 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos, Athens

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'KifisiaOgnjen Ožegović (penalty)
54'PanetolikosJoão Pedro
56'KifisiaOgnjen Ožegović (assist: J. Menéndez)
77'PanetolikosS. Mladen (assist: P. Silva)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kifisia		Panetolikos
14	Shots	13
8	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	7
5	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
50%	Possession	50%
344	Passes	342
259	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kifisia 1.66 · Panetolikos 1.20. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Kifisia 14 · Panetolikos 13; on target 8 and 5.

Referee

E. Gortsilas→

5.57

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.6%: “Kifisia to win”. Second comes “Panetolikos to win” at 26.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for Kifisia, 1.20 for Panetolikos.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 387 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kifisia to win47.6%

Draw26.1%

Panetolikos to win26.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	19

3	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Kifisia lead at half-time24.8%

Level at half-time40.3%

Panetolikos lead at half-time34.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Kifisia ahead or level65.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or Panetolikos ahead75.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 386 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kifisia: at least 14Actual: 19
Panetolikos: at least 14Actual: 19

Corners

Kifisia: at least 5Actual: 5
Panetolikos: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kifisia score1.66

Attack: Kifisia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Panetolikos's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Panetolikos score1.20

Attack: Panetolikos score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kifisia concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–110.4%1–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.