Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 26

PAS Giannina–Atromitos

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 March 2024 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Zosimades, Ioannina

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'PAS GianninaD. Rienstra (assist: Pedro Conde)
58'AtromitosK. Angielski (assist: G. Tzovaras)
73'AtromitosK. Kivrakidis · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
PAS Giannina		Atromitos
19	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
51%	Possession	49%
353	Passes	346
260	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PAS Giannina 1.40 · Atromitos 1.26. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots PAS Giannina 19 · Atromitos 8; on target 3 and 3.

Referee

A. Vatsios→

4.80

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.5%: “PAS Giannina to win”. Second comes “Atromitos to win” at 32.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for PAS Giannina, 1.26 for Atromitos.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 387 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PAS Giannina to win39.5%

Draw28.0%

Atromitos to win32.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

PAS Giannina lead at half-time41.9%

Level at half-time40.8%

Atromitos lead at half-time17.3%

First-half double chance

1X — PAS Giannina ahead or level82.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or Atromitos ahead58.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 386 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

PAS Giannina: at least 13Actual: 17
Atromitos: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

PAS Giannina: at least 4Actual: 8
Atromitos: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PAS Giannina score1.40

Attack: PAS Giannina score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Atromitos's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Atromitos score1.26

Attack: Atromitos score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: PAS Giannina concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.4%1–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.