Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 23

Asteras Tripolis–Panetolikos

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Monday, 19 February 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Tripoli

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'PanetolikosS. Díaz
45+2'Asteras TripolisJ. Miritello (assist: N. Kaltsas)
65'Asteras TripolisE. Zukanović (assist: N. Kaltsas)
90+2'PanetolikosMarios Oikonomou (assist: Juanpi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Asteras Tripolis		Panetolikos
17	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	6
13	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	3
1	Offsides	6
58%	Possession	42%
446	Passes	346
352	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Asteras Tripolis 1.54 · Panetolikos 1.01. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Asteras Tripolis 17 · Panetolikos 10; on target 5 and 6.
Asteras Tripolis kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

S. Koumbarakis→

5.40

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.1%: “Asteras Tripolis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Asteras Tripolis, 1.01 for Panetolikos.
The highest double chance value is 76.5% (1X — Asteras Tripolis win or draw).
These values were computed from 372 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Asteras Tripolis to win49.1%

Draw27.4%

Panetolikos to win23.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Asteras Tripolis lead at half-time45.2%

Level at half-time39.2%

Panetolikos lead at half-time15.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Asteras Tripolis ahead or level84.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.8%

X2 — level or Panetolikos ahead54.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 371 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Asteras Tripolis: at least 14Actual: 14
Panetolikos: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Asteras Tripolis: at least 4Actual: 6
Panetolikos: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Asteras Tripolis score1.54

Attack: Asteras Tripolis score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Panetolikos's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Panetolikos score1.01

Attack: Panetolikos score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Asteras Tripolis's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–011.2%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.