Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 22

PAS Giannina–Aris Thessalonikis

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 February 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Zosimades, Ioannina

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
PAS Giannina		Aris Thessalonikis
10	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
31%	Possession	69%
238	Passes	541
154	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PAS Giannina 0.93 · Aris Thessalonikis 1.74. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots PAS Giannina 10 · Aris Thessalonikis 8; on target 2 and 3.
Aris Thessalonikis kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

A. Vatsios→

4.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.4%: “Aris Thessalonikis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.93 for PAS Giannina, 1.74 for Aris Thessalonikis.
The highest double chance value is 81.5% (X2 — draw or Aris Thessalonikis win).
These values were computed from 360 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PAS Giannina to win18.5%

Draw25.1%

Aris Thessalonikis to win56.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,652 of 2,776 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

21	Fouls	21

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

PAS Giannina lead at half-time17.6%

Level at half-time41.5%

Aris Thessalonikis lead at half-time40.9%

First-half double chance

1X — PAS Giannina ahead or level59.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Aris Thessalonikis ahead82.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 359 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

PAS Giannina: at least 13Actual: 21
Aris Thessalonikis: at least 13Actual: 21

Corners

PAS Giannina: at least 4Actual: 2
Aris Thessalonikis: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PAS Giannina score0.93

Attack: PAS Giannina score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Aris Thessalonikis concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aris Thessalonikis score1.74

Attack: Aris Thessalonikis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: PAS Giannina concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%0–111.2%1–210.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.