Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 18

Lamia–Panserraikos

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 January 2024 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Lamia

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'PanserraikosA. Warda (assist: M. Tomas)
85'PanserraikosK. Aleksić (assist: A. Warda)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lamia		Panserraikos
9	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	4
3	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	1
1	Offsides	0
55%	Possession	45%
539	Passes	449
425	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lamia 1.47 · Panserraikos 1.11. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Lamia 9 · Panserraikos 7; on target 3 and 4.
Lamia kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

A. Gamaris→

4.60

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.8%: “Lamia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Lamia, 1.11 for Panserraikos.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (1X — Lamia win or draw).
These values were computed from 332 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lamia to win44.8%

Draw27.9%

Panserraikos to win27.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	20

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Lamia lead at half-time26.6%

Level at half-time42.9%

Panserraikos lead at half-time30.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Lamia ahead or level69.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Panserraikos ahead73.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 331 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lamia: at least 15Actual: 14
Panserraikos: at least 14Actual: 20

Corners

Lamia: at least 4Actual: 2
Panserraikos: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lamia score1.47

Attack: Lamia score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Panserraikos concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Panserraikos score1.11

Attack: Panserraikos score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lamia concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–010.3%2–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.