Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 17

Volos NFC–Atromitos

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 January 2024 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio, Volos

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 0.1% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'AtromitosK. Angielski (assist: D. Jubitana)
59'AtromitosK. Angielski (penalty)
90+7'Volos NFCP. Moraitis (assist: Antonio Luna)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Volos NFC		Atromitos
8	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	7
6	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	8
1	Offsides	0
43%	Possession	57%
275	Passes	383
187	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Volos NFC 1.27 · Atromitos 1.27. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Volos NFC 8 · Atromitos 14; on target 4 and 7.
Atromitos kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

S. Koumbarakis→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.6%: “Volos NFC to win”. Second comes “Atromitos to win” at 35.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Volos NFC, 1.27 for Atromitos.
The highest double chance value is 71.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 324 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Volos NFC to win35.6%

Draw28.9%

Atromitos to win35.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	18

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Volos NFC lead at half-time26.4%

Level at half-time46.5%

Atromitos lead at half-time27.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Volos NFC ahead or level72.9%

12 — not level at half-time53.5%

X2 — level or Atromitos ahead73.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 323 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Volos NFC: at least 14Actual: 17
Atromitos: at least 14Actual: 18

Corners

Volos NFC: at least 4Actual: 2
Atromitos: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Volos NFC score1.27

Attack: Volos NFC score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Atromitos's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Atromitos score1.27

Attack: Atromitos score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Volos NFC concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–09.1%0–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.