Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 15

Kifisia–PAOK

0–6

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Thursday, 21 December 2023 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos, Athens

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'PAOKG. Konstantelias (assist: T. Murg)
28'PAOKBrandon Thomas (assist: K. Despodov)
34'PAOKK. Despodov (assist: G. Konstantelias)
52'PAOKT. Murg (assist: K. Despodov)
72'PAOKM. Ozdoev (assist: K. Despodov)
80'PAOKT. Tsingaras

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kifisia		PAOK
7	Shots	15
2	Shots on target	12
6	Shots inside the box	12
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
0	Corners	4
4	Offsides	6
30%	Possession	70%
270	Passes	646
194	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kifisia 0.86 · PAOK 2.04. On the pitch: 0-6.
Shots Kifisia 7 · PAOK 15; on target 2 and 12.
PAOK kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

K. Poulikidis→

7.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.0%: “PAOK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.86 for Kifisia, 2.04 for PAOK.
The highest double chance value is 86.5% (X2 — draw or PAOK win).
These values were computed from 315 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kifisia to win13.5%

Draw21.5%

PAOK to win65.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–3

Kifisia lead at half-time5.5%

Level at half-time33.3%

PAOK lead at half-time61.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Kifisia ahead or level38.8%

12 — not level at half-time66.7%

X2 — level or PAOK ahead94.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 314 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kifisia: at least 13Actual: 15
PAOK: at least 13Actual: 16

Corners

Kifisia: at least 3
PAOK: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kifisia score0.86

Attack: Kifisia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: PAOK concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.86 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals PAOK score2.04

Attack: PAOK score above the league average (42% more).

Opponent's defence: Kifisia concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.04 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–211.7%1–210.9%1–110.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.