Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 7

Volos NFC–Panserraikos

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 29 November 2023 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio, Volos

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 3.2% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

54'Volos NFCP. Moraitis (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Volos NFC		Panserraikos
11	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	5
2	Offsides	2
41%	Possession	59%
284	Passes	413
189	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Volos NFC 1.26 · Panserraikos 1.33. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Volos NFC 11 · Panserraikos 11; on target 3 and 3.
Panserraikos kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

A. Vatsios→

3.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.4%: “Panserraikos to win”. Second comes “Volos NFC to win” at 34.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Volos NFC, 1.33 for Panserraikos.
The highest double chance value is 71.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 295 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Volos NFC to win34.1%

Draw28.5%

Panserraikos to win37.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

21	Fouls	19

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Volos NFC lead at half-time15.0%

Level at half-time40.7%

Panserraikos lead at half-time44.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Volos NFC ahead or level55.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.3%

X2 — level or Panserraikos ahead85.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 294 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Volos NFC: at least 14Actual: 21
Panserraikos: at least 15Actual: 19

Corners

Volos NFC: at least 4Actual: 3
Panserraikos: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Volos NFC score1.26

Attack: Volos NFC score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Panserraikos concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Panserraikos score1.33

Attack: Panserraikos score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Volos NFC concede 31% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–29.1%0–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.