Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 10

Aris Thessalonikis–Atromitos

1–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 November 2023 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Thessaloniki

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 10%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'AtromitosSamúel Kári Friðjónsson (assist: G. Robail)
39'Aris ThessalonikisFabiano
55'AtromitosD. Valencia (penalty)
77'AtromitosAguibou Camara

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aris Thessalonikis		Atromitos
23	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	2
3	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
423	Passes	311
335	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aris Thessalonikis 2.00 · Atromitos 0.66. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Aris Thessalonikis 23 · Atromitos 7; on target 5 and 5.
Aris Thessalonikis kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

A. Diamantopoulos→

5.65

yellows per match

0.05

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.4%: “Aris Thessalonikis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.00 for Aris Thessalonikis, 0.66 for Atromitos.
The highest double chance value is 90.0% (1X — Aris Thessalonikis win or draw).
These values were computed from 279 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aris Thessalonikis to win69.4%

Draw20.5%

Atromitos to win10.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	18

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Aris Thessalonikis lead at half-time53.5%

Level at half-time38.9%

Atromitos lead at half-time7.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Aris Thessalonikis ahead or level92.4%

12 — not level at half-time61.1%

X2 — level or Atromitos ahead46.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 278 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aris Thessalonikis: at least 13Actual: 15
Atromitos: at least 14Actual: 18

Corners

Aris Thessalonikis: at least 4Actual: 9
Atromitos: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aris Thessalonikis score2.00

Attack: Aris Thessalonikis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Atromitos concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.00 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Atromitos score0.66

Attack: Atromitos score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Aris Thessalonikis concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.66 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.5%1–013.3%1–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.