Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 4

Asteras Tripolis–PAS Giannina

2–2

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 September 2023 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Tripoli

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'PAS GianninaP. Tzimas (assist: Carles Soria)
21'Asteras TripolisF. Álvarez
28'PAS GianninaC. Bălan (assist: Carles Soria)
45+3'Asteras TripolisXesc Regis

Match statistics

Match statistics
Asteras Tripolis		PAS Giannina
13	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	6
6	Shots inside the box	4
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	1
1	Offsides	0
70%	Possession	30%
578	Passes	257
496	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Asteras Tripolis 1.24 · PAS Giannina 0.92. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Asteras Tripolis 13 · PAS Giannina 7; on target 6 and 6.
Asteras Tripolis kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

A. Gamaris→

4.71

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.0%: “Asteras Tripolis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Asteras Tripolis, 0.92 for PAS Giannina.
The highest double chance value is 73.8% (1X — Asteras Tripolis win or draw).
These values were computed from 233 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Asteras Tripolis to win43.0%

Draw30.8%

PAS Giannina to win26.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

Asteras Tripolis lead at half-time31.8%

Level at half-time48.2%

PAS Giannina lead at half-time20.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Asteras Tripolis ahead or level80.0%

12 — not level at half-time51.8%

X2 — level or PAS Giannina ahead68.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 233 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Asteras Tripolis: at least 14Actual: 15
PAS Giannina: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Asteras Tripolis: at least 4Actual: 8
PAS Giannina: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Asteras Tripolis score1.24

Attack: Asteras Tripolis score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: PAS Giannina's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals PAS Giannina score0.92

Attack: PAS Giannina score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Asteras Tripolis's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–013.6%0–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.