Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 30

Haugesund–Stabaek

3–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 December 2023 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Haugesund

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

74'HaugesundM. Samuelsen (assist: J. Eskesen)
77'HaugesundB. Njie
90+2'HaugesundB. Njie

Match statistics

Match statistics
Haugesund		Stabaek
10	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	6
7	Shots inside the box	6
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	7
1	Offsides	0
36%	Possession	64%
281	Passes	508
188	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Haugesund 1.59 · Stabaek 1.18. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Haugesund 10 · Stabaek 14; on target 6 and 6.
Stabaek kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

S. Kringstad→

2.22

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.3%: “Haugesund to win”. Second comes “Stabaek to win” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for Haugesund, 1.18 for Stabaek.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 472 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Haugesund to win46.3%

Draw26.8%

Stabaek to win27.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Haugesund lead at half-time40.4%

Level at half-time41.2%

Stabaek lead at half-time18.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Haugesund ahead or level81.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or Stabaek ahead59.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 472 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Haugesund: at least 10Actual: 19
Stabaek: at least 9Actual: 11

Corners

Haugesund: at least 4Actual: 6
Stabaek: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Haugesund score1.59

Attack: Haugesund score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Stabaek's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Stabaek score1.18

Attack: Stabaek score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Haugesund's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%2–110.3%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.