Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 28

Valerenga–Stabaek

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 November 2023 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Intility Arena, Oslo

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Valerenga		Stabaek
18	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	2
15	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
2	Corners	3
1	Offsides	0
52%	Possession	48%
524	Passes	498
418	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Valerenga 1.86 · Stabaek 1.15. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Valerenga 18 · Stabaek 5; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

S. Moen→

2.12

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.8%: “Valerenga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.86 for Valerenga, 1.15 for Stabaek.
The highest double chance value is 78.1% (1X — Valerenga win or draw).
These values were computed from 457 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Valerenga to win53.8%

Draw24.3%

Stabaek to win21.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Valerenga lead at half-time41.1%

Level at half-time37.9%

Stabaek lead at half-time21.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Valerenga ahead or level79.0%

12 — not level at half-time62.1%

X2 — level or Stabaek ahead58.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 457 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Valerenga: at least 8Actual: 11
Stabaek: at least 9Actual: 11

Corners

Valerenga: at least 5Actual: 2
Stabaek: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Valerenga score1.86

Attack: Valerenga score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Stabaek's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.86 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Stabaek score1.15

Attack: Stabaek score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Valerenga's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%2–110.8%2–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.