Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 26

Molde–Tromso

1–4

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 30 October 2023 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Aker Stadion, Molde

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 16%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

33'TromsoE. Diouf (assist: M. Traoré)
56'TromsoM. Traoré
75'TromsoL. Nordås
78'TromsoL. Nordås (assist: R. Jenssen)
84'MoldeK. Haugen (assist: E. Hestad)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Molde		Tromso
11	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	9
7	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	6
1	Offsides	2
60%	Possession	40%
641	Passes	431
572	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Molde 2.03 · Tromso 0.98. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Molde 11 · Tromso 13; on target 5 and 9.
Molde kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

S. Moen→

2.08

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.8%: “Molde to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.03 for Molde, 0.98 for Tromso.
The highest double chance value is 83.9% (1X — Molde win or draw).
These values were computed from 447 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Molde to win61.8%

Draw22.2%

Tromso to win16.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Molde lead at half-time50.8%

Level at half-time36.8%

Tromso lead at half-time12.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Molde ahead or level87.6%

12 — not level at half-time63.2%

X2 — level or Tromso ahead49.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 447 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Molde: at least 10Actual: 12
Tromso: at least 8Actual: 9

Corners

Molde: at least 5Actual: 4
Tromso: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Molde score2.03

Attack: Molde score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: Tromso concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 2.03 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Tromso score0.98

Attack: Tromso score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Molde concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.0%2–111.0%2–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.