Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 26

Sarpsborg 08 FF–Stabaek

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 29 October 2023 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsberg

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 20%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'Sarpsborg 08 FFR. Lundqvist (assist: J. Andersen)
47'StabaekS. Ottesen (assist: M. Bakenga)
78'Sarpsborg 08 FFK. Opseth (assist: Peter Reinhardsen)
84'StabaekR. E. Vinge (assist: N. Walstad)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sarpsborg 08 FF		Stabaek
19	Shots	10
7	Shots on target	4
13	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	1
3	Offsides	0
61%	Possession	39%
590	Passes	392
491	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.34 · Stabaek 1.09. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Sarpsborg 08 FF 19 · Stabaek 10; on target 7 and 4.
Sarpsborg 08 FF kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

J. Tennøy→

1.83

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.6%: “Sarpsborg 08 FF to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.34 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1.09 for Stabaek.
The highest double chance value is 85.2% (1X — Sarpsborg 08 FF win or draw).
These values were computed from 441 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sarpsborg 08 FF to win65.6%

Draw19.6%

Stabaek to win14.8%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,092 of 1,602 predictions were correct (68.2%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	6

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sarpsborg 08 FF lead at half-time52.2%

Level at half-time33.2%

Stabaek lead at half-time14.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Sarpsborg 08 FF ahead or level85.4%

12 — not level at half-time66.8%

X2 — level or Stabaek ahead47.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 441 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 9Actual: 10
Stabaek: at least 9Actual: 6

Corners

Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 5Actual: 8
Stabaek: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sarpsborg 08 FF score2.34

Attack: Sarpsborg 08 FF score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Stabaek's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Stabaek score1.09

Attack: Stabaek score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.7%1–19.1%2–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.