Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 24

ODD Ballklubb–Viking

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 October 2023 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Skagerak Arena, Skien

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 2.1% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'VikingH. Tangen (assist: S. Svendsen)
26'ODD BallklubbS. Langås (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
ODD Ballklubb		Viking
16	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
463	Passes	483
376	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: ODD Ballklubb 1.50 · Viking 1.55. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots ODD Ballklubb 16 · Viking 7; on target 6 and 4.

Referee

K. Steen→

3.57

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.0%: “Viking to win”. Second comes “ODD Ballklubb to win” at 35.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for ODD Ballklubb, 1.55 for Viking.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 424 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

ODD Ballklubb to win35.9%

Draw26.1%

Viking to win38.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

ODD Ballklubb lead at half-time40.1%

Level at half-time40.3%

Viking lead at half-time19.6%

First-half double chance

1X — ODD Ballklubb ahead or level80.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or Viking ahead59.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 424 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

ODD Ballklubb: at least 9Actual: 9
Viking: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

ODD Ballklubb: at least 4Actual: 5
Viking: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals ODD Ballklubb score1.50

Attack: ODD Ballklubb score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Viking's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Viking score1.55

Attack: Viking score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: ODD Ballklubb's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%1–29.3%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.