Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 18

Sarpsborg 08 FF–Stromsgodset

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 August 2023 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsberg

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 17%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'Sarpsborg 08 FFK. Opseth (assist: Mikkel Maigaard)
63'StromsgodsetH. Stengel (penalty)
83'StromsgodsetE. Andersen (assist: H. Stengel)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sarpsborg 08 FF		Stromsgodset
20	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	2
15	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	5
0	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
573	Passes	407
487	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.30 · Stromsgodset 1.17. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Sarpsborg 08 FF 20 · Stromsgodset 8; on target 5 and 2.
Sarpsborg 08 FF kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

S. Moen→

2.24

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.9%: “Sarpsborg 08 FF to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.30 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1.17 for Stromsgodset.
The highest double chance value is 83.3% (1X — Sarpsborg 08 FF win or draw).
These values were computed from 378 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sarpsborg 08 FF to win62.9%

Draw20.3%

Stromsgodset to win16.7%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	3

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sarpsborg 08 FF lead at half-time42.6%

Level at half-time35.4%

Stromsgodset lead at half-time22.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Sarpsborg 08 FF ahead or level78.0%

12 — not level at half-time64.6%

X2 — level or Stromsgodset ahead57.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 378 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 9Actual: 12
Stromsgodset: at least 10Actual: 3

Corners

Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 7Actual: 8
Stromsgodset: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sarpsborg 08 FF score2.30

Attack: Sarpsborg 08 FF score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Stromsgodset's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Stromsgodset score1.17

Attack: Stromsgodset score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.6%1–19.3%2–08.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.