Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 14

Sarpsborg 08 FF–Ham-Kam

2–3

HT 2–3

Kick-off: Sunday, 16 July 2023 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsberg

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 11%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Ham-KamH. Udahl (penalty)
15'Sarpsborg 08 FFS. Ngouali (assist: R. Lundqvist)
24'Sarpsborg 08 FFR. Lundqvist (assist: V. Torp)
35'Ham-KamJ. Norheim
37'Ham-KamK. Onsrud

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sarpsborg 08 FF		Ham-Kam
27	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
10	Corners	3
0	Offsides	0
71%	Possession	29%
478	Passes	208
409	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.41 · Ham-Kam 0.93. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Sarpsborg 08 FF 27 · Ham-Kam 6; on target 5 and 3.
Sarpsborg 08 FF kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

J. Tennøy→

2.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.8%: “Sarpsborg 08 FF to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.41 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 0.93 for Ham-Kam.
The highest double chance value is 88.8% (1X — Sarpsborg 08 FF win or draw).
These values were computed from 346 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sarpsborg 08 FF to win70.8%

Draw18.0%

Ham-Kam to win11.2%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–3

Sarpsborg 08 FF lead at half-time52.0%

Level at half-time35.3%

Ham-Kam lead at half-time12.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Sarpsborg 08 FF ahead or level87.4%

12 — not level at half-time64.7%

X2 — level or Ham-Kam ahead48.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 346 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 8Actual: 5
Ham-Kam: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 7Actual: 10
Ham-Kam: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sarpsborg 08 FF score2.41

Attack: Sarpsborg 08 FF score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Ham-Kam's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ham-Kam score0.93

Attack: Ham-Kam score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.5%2–010.5%1–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.