Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 11

Tromso–Stabaek

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 June 2023 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Alfheim, Tromso

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'StabaekK. Hogh
15'TromsoY. Paintsil (assist: R. Jenssen)
35'TromsoV. Erlien (penalty)
86'StabaekK. Hogh · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Tromso		Stabaek
15	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
48%	Possession	52%
536	Passes	565
461	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Tromso 1.64 · Stabaek 1.12. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Tromso 15 · Stabaek 8; on target 6 and 4.

Referee

J. Tennøy→

2.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.0%: “Tromso to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for Tromso, 1.12 for Stabaek.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (1X — Tromso win or draw).
These values were computed from 324 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Tromso to win49.0%

Draw26.4%

Stabaek to win24.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

6	Fouls	6

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–1

Tromso lead at half-time31.0%

Level at half-time39.7%

Stabaek lead at half-time29.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Tromso ahead or level70.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or Stabaek ahead69.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 324 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Tromso: at least 8Actual: 6
Stabaek: at least 10Actual: 6

Corners

Tromso: at least 4Actual: 6
Stabaek: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Tromso score1.64

Attack: Tromso score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Stabaek's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Stabaek score1.12

Attack: Stabaek score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tromso's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%2–110.5%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.