Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 8

ODD Ballklubb–Stromsgodset

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 29 May 2023 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Skagerak Arena, Skien

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

60'ODD BallklubbM. Jevtović (assist: S. Owusu)
62'StromsgodsetMarcus Mehnert (assist: J. Ipalibo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
ODD Ballklubb		Stromsgodset
12	Shots	13
2	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
10	Corners	4
0	Offsides	2
54%	Possession	46%
496	Passes	426
424	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: ODD Ballklubb 1.81 · Stromsgodset 1.08. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots ODD Ballklubb 12 · Stromsgodset 13; on target 2 and 6.

Referee

J. Tennøy→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.4%: “ODD Ballklubb to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.81 for ODD Ballklubb, 1.08 for Stromsgodset.
The highest double chance value is 79.1% (1X — ODD Ballklubb win or draw).
These values were computed from 299 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

ODD Ballklubb to win54.4%

Draw24.7%

Stromsgodset to win20.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

ODD Ballklubb lead at half-time39.2%

Level at half-time41.4%

Stromsgodset lead at half-time19.4%

First-half double chance

1X — ODD Ballklubb ahead or level80.6%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Stromsgodset ahead60.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 299 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

ODD Ballklubb: at least 8Actual: 12
Stromsgodset: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

ODD Ballklubb: at least 5Actual: 10
Stromsgodset: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals ODD Ballklubb score1.81

Attack: ODD Ballklubb score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Stromsgodset concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.81 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Stromsgodset score1.08

Attack: Stromsgodset score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: ODD Ballklubb concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%2–110.9%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.