Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Championship Round - 9

Maccabi Bnei Raina–Bnei Sakhnin

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 21 May 2024 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Green Stadium, Nazareth Illit

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'Maccabi Bnei RainaN. Ljubisavljević (assist: Sambinha)
30'Bnei SakhninA. Halaihal (assist: O. Darwish)
78'Maccabi Bnei RainaT. Bushank
83'Bnei SakhninB. Khuri (assist: M. Bdarney)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Bnei Raina 1.17 · Bnei Sakhnin 1.03. On the pitch: 2-2.

Referee

V. Bondarev→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.0%: “Maccabi Bnei Raina to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for Maccabi Bnei Raina, 1.03 for Bnei Sakhnin.
The highest double chance value is 69.1% (1X — Maccabi Bnei Raina win or draw).
These values were computed from 418 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Bnei Raina to win38.0%

Draw31.1%

Bnei Sakhnin to win30.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Maccabi Bnei Raina win or draw69.1%

12 — any result other than a draw68.9%

X2 — draw or Bnei Sakhnin win62.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (31.1%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Maccabi Bnei Raina lead at half-time22.5%

Level at half-time47.9%

Bnei Sakhnin lead at half-time29.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Bnei Raina ahead or level70.4%

12 — not level at half-time52.1%

X2 — level or Bnei Sakhnin ahead77.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 418 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Bnei Raina: at least 10
Bnei Sakhnin: at least 10

Corners

Maccabi Bnei Raina: at least 5
Bnei Sakhnin: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Bnei Raina score1.17

Attack: Maccabi Bnei Raina score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bnei Sakhnin's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bnei Sakhnin score1.03

Attack: Bnei Sakhnin score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Bnei Raina's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%1–012.2%0–010.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.