Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 24

Bnei Sakhnin–Ashdod

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 March 2024 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Doha Stadium, Sakhnin

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'Bnei SakhninC. Spinelli (assist: M. Shaker)
23'AshdodS. Nachmani (assist: M. Kna'an)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bnei Sakhnin		Ashdod
12	Shots	6
3	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	3
3	Offsides	3
58%	Possession	42%
402	Passes	295
299	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bnei Sakhnin 1.28 · Ashdod 0.97. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Bnei Sakhnin 12 · Ashdod 6; on target 3 and 3.
Bnei Sakhnin kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

R. Geva→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.8%: “Bnei Sakhnin to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Bnei Sakhnin, 0.97 for Ashdod.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (1X — Bnei Sakhnin win or draw).
These values were computed from 374 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bnei Sakhnin to win42.8%

Draw30.3%

Ashdod to win26.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Bnei Sakhnin lead at half-time37.1%

Level at half-time46.6%

Ashdod lead at half-time16.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Bnei Sakhnin ahead or level83.6%

12 — not level at half-time53.4%

X2 — level or Ashdod ahead62.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 374 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bnei Sakhnin: at least 10Actual: 11
Ashdod: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

Bnei Sakhnin: at least 3Actual: 4
Ashdod: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bnei Sakhnin score1.28

Attack: Bnei Sakhnin score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ashdod's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ashdod score0.97

Attack: Ashdod score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bnei Sakhnin's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–012.8%0–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.