1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Round - 14

Nea Salamis–AE Zakakiou

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 May 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi, Larnaca

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Goals and red cards

20'Nea SalamisL. Narsingh
56'AE ZakakiouM. Sifneos
80'Nea SalamisL. Narsingh · red card
80'AE ZakakiouValentinos Pastellis · red card

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nea Salamis 1.88 · AE Zakakiou 0.98. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

K. Neofytou→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.5%: “Nea Salamis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.88 for Nea Salamis, 0.98 for AE Zakakiou.
The highest double chance value is 82.2% (1X — Nea Salamis win or draw).
These values were computed from 422 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nea Salamis to win58.5%

Draw23.7%

AE Zakakiou to win17.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Nea Salamis win or draw82.2%

12 — any result other than a draw76.3%

X2 — draw or AE Zakakiou win41.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.7%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Nea Salamis lead at half-time35.4%

Level at half-time41.8%

AE Zakakiou lead at half-time22.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Nea Salamis ahead or level77.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or AE Zakakiou ahead64.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 421 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nea Salamis: at least 10
AE Zakakiou: at least 13

Corners

Nea Salamis: at least 4
AE Zakakiou: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,511 of 4,397 predictions were correct (57.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nea Salamis score1.88

Attack: Nea Salamis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AE Zakakiou concede 49% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.88 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AE Zakakiou score0.98

Attack: AE Zakakiou score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nea Salamis's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%2–111.0%2–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.