1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Round - 14

Apollon Limassol–Othellos

4–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 May 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi

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Goals and red cards

17'Apollon LimassolA. Sagal
48'Apollon LimassolV. Costache
50'Apollon LimassolE. Peretz
52'OthellosLukas Brambilla
67'Apollon LimassolP. Marques

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Apollon Limassol 2.17 · Othellos 0.61. On the pitch: 4-1.

Referee

A. Techrany→

3.79

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.0%: “Apollon Limassol to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.17 for Apollon Limassol, 0.61 for Othellos.
The highest double chance value is 92.1% (1X — Apollon Limassol win or draw).
These values were computed from 422 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Apollon Limassol to win74.0%

Draw18.1%

Othellos to win7.9%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 947 of 1,266 predictions were correct (74.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Apollon Limassol win or draw92.1%

12 — any result other than a draw81.9%

X2 — draw or Othellos win26.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (18.1%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Apollon Limassol lead at half-time53.8%

Level at half-time36.9%

Othellos lead at half-time9.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Apollon Limassol ahead or level90.7%

12 — not level at half-time63.1%

X2 — level or Othellos ahead46.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 421 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Apollon Limassol: at least 11
Othellos: at least 12

Corners

Apollon Limassol: at least 6
Othellos: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,889 of 5,365 predictions were correct (53.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Apollon Limassol score2.17

Attack: Apollon Limassol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Othellos concede 37% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Othellos score0.61

Attack: Othellos score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Apollon Limassol concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.61 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–015.2%1–012.8%3–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.