1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Round - 13

AE Zakakiou–Apollon Limassol

1–5

HT 1–3

Kick-off: Wednesday, 8 May 2024 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi, Larnaca

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Goals and red cards

20'Apollon LimassolP. Marques
27'Apollon LimassolE. Peretz
39'Apollon LimassolE. Peretz
44'AE ZakakiouClé
57'Apollon LimassolE. Peretz
73'Apollon LimassolA. Artean

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AE Zakakiou 0.88 · Apollon Limassol 1.95. On the pitch: 1-5.

Referee

A. Konstantinidis→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.8%: “Apollon Limassol to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.88 for AE Zakakiou, 1.95 for Apollon Limassol.
The highest double chance value is 85.3% (X2 — draw or Apollon Limassol win).
These values were computed from 419 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AE Zakakiou to win14.7%

Draw22.5%

Apollon Limassol to win62.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,325 of 2,113 predictions were correct (62.7%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — AE Zakakiou win or draw37.2%

12 — any result other than a draw77.5%

X2 — draw or Apollon Limassol win85.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.5%).

First half

Actual: 1–3

AE Zakakiou lead at half-time21.3%

Level at half-time40.9%

Apollon Limassol lead at half-time37.7%

First-half double chance

1X — AE Zakakiou ahead or level62.3%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Apollon Limassol ahead78.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 418 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AE Zakakiou: at least 12
Apollon Limassol: at least 11

Corners

AE Zakakiou: at least 4
Apollon Limassol: at least 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,889 of 5,365 predictions were correct (53.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AE Zakakiou score0.88

Attack: AE Zakakiou score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Apollon Limassol concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Apollon Limassol score1.95

Attack: Apollon Limassol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AE Zakakiou concede 49% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–211.5%1–111.4%1–210.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.