1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Round - 13

Othellos–Doxa

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 7 May 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi, Larnaca

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Goals and red cards

6'OthellosGeorgios Christodoulou
29'OthellosI. Sangaré
79'OthellosI. Sangaré
84'DoxaVangelis Kyriakou · red card

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Othellos 1.47 · Doxa 0.87. On the pitch: 3-0.

Referee

A. Tsambalas→

3.67

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.8%: “Othellos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Othellos, 0.87 for Doxa.
The highest double chance value is 79.1% (1X — Othellos win or draw).
These values were computed from 419 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Othellos to win50.8%

Draw28.2%

Doxa to win20.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

Double chance

1X — Othellos win or draw79.1%

12 — any result other than a draw71.8%

X2 — draw or Doxa win49.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.2%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Othellos lead at half-time28.4%

Level at half-time44.3%

Doxa lead at half-time27.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Othellos ahead or level72.7%

12 — not level at half-time55.7%

X2 — level or Doxa ahead71.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 418 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Othellos: at least 11
Doxa: at least 12

Corners

Othellos: at least 5
Doxa: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Othellos score1.47

Attack: Othellos score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Doxa concede 45% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Doxa score0.87

Attack: Doxa score below the league average (52% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Othellos concede 37% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–013.5%2–010.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.