1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Round - 12

Othellos–AE Zakakiou

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Monday, 29 April 2024 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi, Larnaca

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Goals and red cards

5'OthellosR. Pich
24'AE ZakakiouClé
72'OthellosI. Sangaré
77'OthellosI. Sangaré

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Othellos 1.40 · AE Zakakiou 1.29. On the pitch: 3-1.

Referee

N. Liotatis→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.7%: “Othellos to win”. Second comes “AE Zakakiou to win” at 33.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for Othellos, 1.29 for AE Zakakiou.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 419 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Othellos to win38.7%

Draw27.9%

AE Zakakiou to win33.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Othellos win or draw66.6%

12 — any result other than a draw72.1%

X2 — draw or AE Zakakiou win61.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.9%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Othellos lead at half-time18.7%

Level at half-time41.5%

AE Zakakiou lead at half-time39.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Othellos ahead or level60.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or AE Zakakiou ahead81.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 418 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Othellos: at least 10
AE Zakakiou: at least 13

Corners

Othellos: at least 4
AE Zakakiou: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,889 of 5,365 predictions were correct (53.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Othellos score1.40

Attack: Othellos score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AE Zakakiou concede 49% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AE Zakakiou score1.29

Attack: AE Zakakiou score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Othellos concede 37% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%2–19.4%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.