1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Round - 11

Karmiotissa–Othellos

6–6

HT 1–4

Kick-off: Wednesday, 24 April 2024 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Stelios Kyriakides, Paphos

Goals and red cards

3'KarmiotissaBojan Kovačević
8'OthellosA. Slávik
25'OthellosM. Šuto
38'OthellosR. Pich
43'OthellosA. Slávik
48'OthellosR. Pich
53'Karmiotissa

Match statistics

Match statistics
Karmiotissa		Othellos
20	Shots	24
8	Shots on target	11
13	Shots inside the box	15
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	5
3	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
420	Passes	300
346	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Karmiotissa 1.84 · Othellos 1.01. On the pitch: 6-6.
Shots Karmiotissa 20 · Othellos 24; on target 8 and 11.
Karmiotissa kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

A. Konstantinidis→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.9%: “Karmiotissa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for Karmiotissa, 1.01 for Othellos.
The highest double chance value is 81.1% (1X — Karmiotissa win or draw).
These values were computed from 416 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Karmiotissa to win56.9%

Draw24.2%

Othellos to win18.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

A. Katsantonis (penalty)

61'KarmiotissaA. Doumbia

67'OthellosDudu Nardini

81'KarmiotissaN. Mattheou

90+3'KarmiotissaA. Katsantonis (penalty)

90+7'KarmiotissaA. Katsantonis

13	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,772 of 6,687 predictions were correct (56.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Karmiotissa win or draw81.1%

12 — any result other than a draw75.8%

X2 — draw or Othellos win43.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.2%).

First half

Actual: 1–4

Karmiotissa lead at half-time42.9%

Level at half-time40.9%

Othellos lead at half-time16.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Karmiotissa ahead or level83.9%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Othellos ahead57.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 415 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Karmiotissa: at least 11Actual: 13
Othellos: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Karmiotissa: at least 4Actual: 5
Othellos: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,889 of 5,365 predictions were correct (53.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Karmiotissa score1.84

Attack: Karmiotissa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Othellos concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Othellos score1.01

Attack: Othellos score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Karmiotissa concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%2–110.9%2–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 416 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 25 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.