1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Round - 10

AE Zakakiou–Karmiotissa

2–5

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 April 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi, Larnaca

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Goals and red cards

18'AE ZakakiouM. Sifneos
24'AE ZakakiouV. Matongo
41'KarmiotissaD. Theodorou
48'KarmiotissaA. Katsantonis
66'KarmiotissaD. Theodorou
82'KarmiotissaK. Rossi
90+3'

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AE Zakakiou 1.39 · Karmiotissa 1.63. On the pitch: 2-5.

Referee

A. Techrany→

3.75

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.4%: “Karmiotissa to win”. Second comes “AE Zakakiou to win” at 31.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for AE Zakakiou, 1.63 for Karmiotissa.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 413 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AE Zakakiou to win31.6%

Draw26.0%

Karmiotissa to win42.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,518 of 5,655 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — AE Zakakiou win or draw57.6%

12 — any result other than a draw74.0%

X2 — draw or Karmiotissa win68.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.0%).

First half

Actual: 2–1

AE Zakakiou lead at half-time31.4%

Level at half-time41.5%

Karmiotissa lead at half-time27.1%

First-half double chance

1X — AE Zakakiou ahead or level72.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Karmiotissa ahead68.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 412 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AE Zakakiou: at least 13
Karmiotissa: at least 12

Corners

AE Zakakiou: at least 4
Karmiotissa: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals59.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,511 of 4,397 predictions were correct (57.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AE Zakakiou score1.39

Attack: AE Zakakiou score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Karmiotissa concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Karmiotissa score1.63

Attack: Karmiotissa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AE Zakakiou concede 48% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%1–29.9%2–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.