1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Round - 10

Othellos–Ethnikos Achna

2–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 19 April 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi, Larnaca

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Goals and red cards

32'OthellosDudu Nardini
34'OthellosR. Pich
58'Ethnikos AchnaM. Peratikos

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Othellos 1.22 · Ethnikos Achna 1.75. On the pitch: 2-1.

Referee

R. Costa→

5.75

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.4%: “Ethnikos Achna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.22 for Othellos, 1.75 for Ethnikos Achna.
The highest double chance value is 74.7% (X2 — draw or Ethnikos Achna win).
These values were computed from 413 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Othellos to win25.3%

Draw25.4%

Ethnikos Achna to win49.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Othellos win or draw50.6%

12 — any result other than a draw74.6%

X2 — draw or Ethnikos Achna win74.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.4%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Othellos lead at half-time14.7%

Level at half-time37.5%

Ethnikos Achna lead at half-time47.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Othellos ahead or level52.2%

12 — not level at half-time62.5%

X2 — level or Ethnikos Achna ahead85.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 412 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Othellos: at least 11
Ethnikos Achna: at least 12

Corners

Othellos: at least 4
Ethnikos Achna: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,511 of 4,397 predictions were correct (57.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Othellos score1.22

Attack: Othellos score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ethnikos Achna concede 41% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ethnikos Achna score1.75

Attack: Ethnikos Achna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Othellos concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.75 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%1–210.6%0–18.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.