1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Round - 9

AEL–Othellos

3–2

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Friday, 12 April 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi

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Goals and red cards

12'AELV. Papafotis
30'AELAhmad Mendes Moreira
45+3'AELE. Andreou
76'OthellosGeorgios Christodoulou
82'OthellosG. Katsiati

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEL 1.81 · Othellos 0.88. On the pitch: 3-2.

Referee

P. Hadjigeorghiou→

4.43

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.4%: “AEL to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.81 for AEL, 0.88 for Othellos.
The highest double chance value is 83.5% (1X — AEL win or draw).
These values were computed from 410 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEL to win59.4%

Draw24.1%

Othellos to win16.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

Double chance

1X — AEL win or draw83.5%

12 — any result other than a draw75.9%

X2 — draw or Othellos win40.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.1%).

First half

Actual: 3–0

AEL lead at half-time44.3%

Level at half-time39.4%

Othellos lead at half-time16.3%

First-half double chance

1X — AEL ahead or level83.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or Othellos ahead55.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 409 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AEL: at least 11
Othellos: at least 12

Corners

AEL: at least 5
Othellos: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,890 of 5,366 predictions were correct (53.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEL score1.81

Attack: AEL score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Othellos concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.81 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Othellos score0.88

Attack: Othellos score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AEL's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%1–011.5%2–011.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.