1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Round - 8

AE Zakakiou–AEL

1–5

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Monday, 8 April 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi, Larnaca

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Goals and red cards

20'AELA. Makris
29'AELG. Minchev
36'AELJavier Mendoza (penalty)
67'AELG. Minchev
82'AE ZakakiouAlex Opoku Sarfo · red card
87'AE ZakakiouA. Christou
90+4'

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AE Zakakiou 1.22 · AEL 1.60. On the pitch: 1-5.

Referee

A. Tsambalas→

4.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.7%: “AEL to win”. Second comes “AE Zakakiou to win” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.22 for AE Zakakiou, 1.60 for AEL.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 410 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AE Zakakiou to win27.7%

Draw26.6%

AEL to win45.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — AE Zakakiou win or draw54.3%

12 — any result other than a draw73.4%

X2 — draw or AEL win72.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–3

AE Zakakiou lead at half-time33.0%

Level at half-time39.9%

AEL lead at half-time27.1%

First-half double chance

1X — AE Zakakiou ahead or level72.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or AEL ahead67.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 409 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AE Zakakiou: at least 12
AEL: at least 12

Corners

AE Zakakiou: at least 4
AEL: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,889 of 5,365 predictions were correct (53.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AE Zakakiou score1.22

Attack: AE Zakakiou score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AEL's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AEL score1.60

Attack: AEL score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AE Zakakiou concede 47% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–210.2%0–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.