1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Round - 8

Othellos–Nea Salamis

2–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 April 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi, Larnaca

Share on X

Goals and red cards

23'Nea SalamisA. Diakité
42'Nea SalamisD. Spiridakis
45+4'OthellosLukas Brambilla
75'OthellosLukas Brambilla
90+4'Nea SalamisL. Narsingh

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Othellos 1.06 · Nea Salamis 1.55. On the pitch: 2-3.

Referee

A. Techrany→

3.91

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.2%: “Nea Salamis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.06 for Othellos, 1.55 for Nea Salamis.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (X2 — draw or Nea Salamis win).
These values were computed from 410 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Othellos to win24.6%

Draw27.2%

Nea Salamis to win48.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Othellos win or draw51.8%

12 — any result other than a draw72.8%

X2 — draw or Nea Salamis win75.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.2%).

First half

Actual: 1–2

Othellos lead at half-time15.0%

Level at half-time41.3%

Nea Salamis lead at half-time43.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Othellos ahead or level56.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.7%

X2 — level or Nea Salamis ahead85.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 409 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Othellos: at least 11
Nea Salamis: at least 11

Corners

Othellos: at least 5
Nea Salamis: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,488 of 5,327 predictions were correct (46.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Othellos score1.06

Attack: Othellos score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nea Salamis's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nea Salamis score1.55

Attack: Nea Salamis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Othellos concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%0–110.5%1–210.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.