1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Round - 8

Doxa–Apollon Limassol

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 April 2024 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Peristerona, Peristerona

Share on X

Goals and red cards

37'Apollon LimassolV. Costache
78'Apollon LimassolE. Peretz

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Doxa 0.59 · Apollon Limassol 2.01. On the pitch: 0-2.

Referee

K. Athanasiou→

4.52

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.8%: “Apollon Limassol to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.59 for Doxa, 2.01 for Apollon Limassol.
The highest double chance value is 91.5% (X2 — draw or Apollon Limassol win).
These values were computed from 408 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Doxa to win8.5%

Draw19.7%

Apollon Limassol to win71.8%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 947 of 1,266 predictions were correct (74.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Doxa win or draw28.2%

12 — any result other than a draw80.3%

X2 — draw or Apollon Limassol win91.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (19.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Doxa lead at half-time11.3%

Level at half-time37.9%

Apollon Limassol lead at half-time50.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Doxa ahead or level49.1%

12 — not level at half-time62.1%

X2 — level or Apollon Limassol ahead88.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 407 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Doxa: at least 12
Apollon Limassol: at least 11

Corners

Doxa: at least 3
Apollon Limassol: at least 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals48.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,488 of 5,327 predictions were correct (46.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Doxa score0.59

Attack: Doxa score below the league average (52% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Apollon Limassol concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Apollon Limassol score2.01

Attack: Apollon Limassol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Doxa concede 43% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–215.7%0–114.4%0–310.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.