1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Round - 7

Othellos–Apollon Limassol

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 3 April 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi, Larnaca

Goals and red cards

38'Apollon LimassolD. Spoljaric

Match statistics

Match statistics
Othellos		Apollon Limassol
7	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	6
0	Offsides	1
41%	Possession	59%
354	Passes	478
280	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Othellos 0.78 · Apollon Limassol 1.90. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Othellos 7 · Apollon Limassol 9; on target 4 and 2.
Apollon Limassol kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

M. Antoniou→

4.49

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.3%: “Apollon Limassol to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.78 for Othellos, 1.90 for Apollon Limassol.
The highest double chance value is 86.8% (X2 — draw or Apollon Limassol win).
These values were computed from 407 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Othellos to win13.2%

Draw22.5%

Apollon Limassol to win64.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,325 of 2,113 predictions were correct (62.7%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Othellos lead at half-time10.7%

Level at half-time38.0%

Apollon Limassol lead at half-time51.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Othellos ahead or level48.7%

12 — not level at half-time62.0%

X2 — level or Apollon Limassol ahead89.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 406 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Othellos: at least 11Actual: 7
Apollon Limassol: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Othellos: at least 3Actual: 3
Apollon Limassol: at least 5Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals50.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,889 of 5,365 predictions were correct (53.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Othellos score0.78

Attack: Othellos score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Apollon Limassol concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Apollon Limassol score1.90

Attack: Apollon Limassol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Othellos concede 35% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–212.8%0–112.4%1–111.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.