1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Round - 7

Ethnikos Achna–Doxa

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 3 April 2024 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Dasaki Achnas, Dasaki Achnas

Goals and red cards

26'Ethnikos AchnaE. Cabrera
45+1'DoxaN. Trujic (penalty)
52'DoxaDimitar Velkovski

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ethnikos Achna		Doxa
14	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	6
2	Offsides	6
49%	Possession	51%
459	Passes	372
368	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ethnikos Achna 2.20 · Doxa 0.73. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Ethnikos Achna 14 · Doxa 8; on target 4 and 4.

Referee

C. Photiou→

4.68

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.6%: “Ethnikos Achna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.20 for Ethnikos Achna, 0.73 for Doxa.
The highest double chance value is 90.3% (1X — Ethnikos Achna win or draw).
These values were computed from 407 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ethnikos Achna to win71.6%

Draw18.8%

Doxa to win9.7%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 947 of 1,266 predictions were correct (74.8%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Ethnikos Achna lead at half-time49.3%

Level at half-time36.5%

Doxa lead at half-time14.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Ethnikos Achna ahead or level85.8%

12 — not level at half-time63.5%

X2 — level or Doxa ahead50.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 406 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ethnikos Achna: at least 11Actual: 10
Doxa: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

Ethnikos Achna: at least 4Actual: 4
Doxa: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,511 of 4,397 predictions were correct (57.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ethnikos Achna score2.20

Attack: Ethnikos Achna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Doxa concede 43% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Doxa score0.73

Attack: Doxa score below the league average (52% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ethnikos Achna concede 40% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.73 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.3%1–011.0%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.