1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Round - 5

Ethnikos Achna–Nea Salamis

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 March 2024 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Dasaki Achnas, Dasaki Achnas

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Goals and red cards

39'Ethnikos AchnaE. Cabrera
66'Ethnikos AchnaD. Dražić

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ethnikos Achna 1.61 · Nea Salamis 1.46. On the pitch: 2-0.

Referee

A. Tsambalas→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.5%: “Ethnikos Achna to win”. Second comes “Nea Salamis to win” at 33.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Ethnikos Achna, 1.46 for Nea Salamis.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 403 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ethnikos Achna to win40.5%

Draw25.9%

Nea Salamis to win33.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ethnikos Achna win or draw66.4%

12 — any result other than a draw74.1%

X2 — draw or Nea Salamis win59.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.9%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Ethnikos Achna lead at half-time27.1%

Level at half-time39.8%

Nea Salamis lead at half-time33.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Ethnikos Achna ahead or level66.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or Nea Salamis ahead72.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 402 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ethnikos Achna: at least 12
Nea Salamis: at least 11

Corners

Ethnikos Achna: at least 5
Nea Salamis: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,728 of 2,752 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ethnikos Achna score1.61

Attack: Ethnikos Achna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nea Salamis's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nea Salamis score1.46

Attack: Nea Salamis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ethnikos Achna concede 39% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%2–19.6%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.