1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Round - 2

Doxa–Karmiotissa

1–4

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 March 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Peristerona, Peristerona

Goals and red cards

7'DoxaA. Nabi (penalty)
52'KarmiotissaA. Doumbia
61'KarmiotissaA. Katsantonis
66'KarmiotissaA. Katsantonis
90+2'KarmiotissaA. Katsantonis

Match statistics

Match statistics
Doxa		Karmiotissa
14	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	5
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	7
2	Offsides	2
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
9	Fouls	10

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Doxa 0.95 · Karmiotissa 1.73. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Doxa 14 · Karmiotissa 13; on target 4 and 5.

Referee

M. Marković→

3.70

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.7%: “Karmiotissa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.95 for Doxa, 1.73 for Karmiotissa.
The highest double chance value is 81.0% (X2 — draw or Karmiotissa win).
These values were computed from 395 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Doxa to win19.0%

Draw25.3%

Karmiotissa to win55.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,652 of 2,776 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Doxa lead at half-time19.1%

Level at half-time41.1%

Karmiotissa lead at half-time39.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Doxa ahead or level60.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.9%

X2 — level or Karmiotissa ahead80.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 394 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Doxa: at least 12Actual: 9
Karmiotissa: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

Doxa: at least 3Actual: 4
Karmiotissa: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals50.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Doxa score0.95

Attack: Doxa score below the league average (51% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Karmiotissa concede 31% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Karmiotissa score1.73

Attack: Karmiotissa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Doxa concede 40% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%0–111.1%1–210.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.